Posts

Inflation Yet Again

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 It might start to seem like a bit of a worn record but my previous blog posts about inflation seem to be being backed up once more.  Boris Johnson has claimed the current problems are all part of his plan to move to a high wage, high skill economy. The problem with this is that with wages going up and an insufficient supply of labour constrained along with  there is a very high likelihood of price rises feeding into inflation.  If the number of workers is lower than the number of employees that the country needs then increasing wages will just move the problem from one sector to another such as refuse lorry drivers moving to drive supermarket HGVs. Sectors with lower wages such as public sector will then lose out or have to ramp up wages to compete causing a spiral of wage growth but no extra people. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58811271 As a small example if you have 11 jobs in your economy and only 10 workers then as an employer you can increase wages which will allow you to

Stop Media Causing Fuel Shortages?

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 I’ve seen a few people making comments that they think the government should step in to control the media to prevent panic buying. Being charitable I’m assuming they’ve not really thought through what they’re suggesting and the possible implications in the future.     The problem isn’t the media reporting the news as such, it’s people making their own decisions based on their lives and priorities. Despite some of the images posted online of jerry cans I don’t believe many people are panic buying, the vast majority of people are buying fuel because they’re worried that it might not be available tomorrow or next week. The majority of people queuing for fuel say that their need is genuine but then suggest that everyone else is panic buying without seeing the apparent irony of this. “My fuel purchase is essential, everyone else is panicking”   The reality as reported originally is that fuel stations are affected by the lack of HGV drivers and have lack of certain grades of fuel at certa

Bank of England Accepts Higher Inflation Likely

 After the BoE August policy report I posted here that I thought inflation was likely to be higher for longer than anticipated and that I thought the Bank of England were downplaying the risks to inflation. With their September policy report  it seems like the BoE are now catching up and have stated that they think "cost pressures may prove more persistent". It's interesting that they have a lag in their assessment which presumably is due to their data collection whereas my assessment was based on what I see around me.  Everywhere you look there are places advertising for staff at all levels and all types of role. Hospitality seems in particular demand but even retail where you've had huge closures over the last 18 months there are adverts for jobs.  Speaking to friends and colleagues about getting work done, everyone is finding material prices higher and difficulty getting hold of tradespeople to do the job. You then have the rises in energy costs and fuel prices. Al

How Much is Price Cap Energy Tariff in kWh for Gas & Electricity?

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 The OFGEM price cap figures are given on their website but only for specific household consumption and they don't show the actual kWh values so this calculator was developed to make it easier to work out. Price Cap Tariff Calculator Or access via http://energy.jj99.co.uk

Energy Companies House of Cards - Avro Energy Bust - But Money for Directors

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 With the price of gas rocketing over recent weeks it has exposed a large number of smaller energy companies that are now struggling to cover their costs and are expected to fail in the coming weeks and months. It has been suggested that the UK energy market could drop from having over 60 suppliers to as low as 10 after this winter. One example exposed by a poster on the MSE forum is the company AVRO Energy. They have looked the public information that AVRO have posted to Companies House as they are legally required to do. It has highlighted some significant issues with their financial position and their ability to keep operating as a going concern. The regulator has questions about this too and has now filed a request for an immediate response to their financial queries or AVRO may lose their licence. Update - in the time I've been writing this Avro have now stopped trading Setup in 2014 by Jake Brown (owned 100% by him and presumably his father Philip Andrew Brown) at the time a

Electricity Gas Price Cap Unit Rate Tariff Calculated - October 2021

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 With the news reporting the current energy crisis with massive hikes in gas and electricity prices as well as numbers of suppliers going out of business I wanted to find out more information about the default price cap tariffs that apply to compare to my current rates. UPDATE - capped bill price calculator now created This wasn't an easy process to do and seems almost deliberately obscure to make it hard for consumers to compare the price cap variable rate tariffs to their current prices - probably because the price cap is lower than most tariffs will be. Eventually I found this information linked from the MSE website https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/default-tariff-cap-level-1-october-2021-31-march-2022 which shows the price cap totals for each supply area for the gas standard credit tariff but importantly doesn't show the unit rates for any of them. However it does show that the value is based on a usage of 1200kWh per year so we can use this to calculate. Electricity &

Is Inflation Coming?

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 Following the Covid19 pandemic the expectation seems to be that some peaks of inflation are coming across the world but that these will only be temporary. These rises in inflation have already started, the main question is how big the rises will be and how long they will be maintained for. I suspect that the situation in the UK will be somewhat different to elsewhere due to the elephant in the room that is Brexit. It's not really being mentioned in the mainstream media and is being masked at the moment by the impact of Covid19 but I believe the shock to the UK economy from Brexit will be much greater than is currently being anticipated not helped by a government that is in denial. August 2021: In the MPC’s projection, inflation rises temporarily to around 4% in the near term, largely driven by energy and goods prices. Inflation starts to decline in 2022, and returns to the 2% target in late 2023 There are plenty of news reports about the shortage of workers whether that's for