Coronavirus True UK Death Rate Numbers from Covid-19
It's been suggested for some time that the official UK statistics for Covid-19 deaths are under reporting the actual number of fatalities because they only include the deaths happening in hospital where the patient has been tested positive for Coronavirus.
Other numbers that may shed some light on the true mortality rate for Coronavirus in the UK have a time lag compared to the daily numbers published by Public Health England but the latest ONS (Office for National Statistics) weekly updates on deaths from all causes are due tomorrow (21st April)
If they are anything like the numbers from last week they will show a massive jump in the number of UK deaths over this time period. It's important to note that this increase in deaths is compared to the average for the last 5 years and not all may be directly attributed to Covid-19. Some may be as an indirect result such as patients not getting treatment for other conditions or may not have been officially recorded as Covid because no test was carried out.
The numbers to 3 April were pretty horrifying as they showed a 60% increase in the number of deaths in the week compared to the 5 year average. Some of that may be natural variation but that can only account for a very small part of the number.
Up until 3 April there were 3605 deaths according to the official Covid-19 statistics. In the same week there were an excess deaths according to ONS of 6082 so the official Coronavirus numbers were only around 50% of the increase in deaths. The other half could be things like care home residents, deaths at home or deaths from other causes that may be linked to the emergency. There is some anecdotal evidence that patients with some serious conditions are avoiding treatment at hospital and may be dying as a result.
The ONS numbers due on 21st April will give the situation up to 10th April by which point there were 8958 deaths officially recorded to Covid-19.
If the ONS number for deaths in the week of 10/4/20 released on 21st April is 20,000 or more then it shows the increase in deaths from Coronavirus/Covid-19 is far more serious that the government has admitted and will equate to a possible death toll so far of over 30,000 people compared to the announced number of 16,000 victims.
Once the numbers are released I will revisit this blog post but you can view the ONS data yourself on their website.
Other numbers that may shed some light on the true mortality rate for Coronavirus in the UK have a time lag compared to the daily numbers published by Public Health England but the latest ONS (Office for National Statistics) weekly updates on deaths from all causes are due tomorrow (21st April)
If they are anything like the numbers from last week they will show a massive jump in the number of UK deaths over this time period. It's important to note that this increase in deaths is compared to the average for the last 5 years and not all may be directly attributed to Covid-19. Some may be as an indirect result such as patients not getting treatment for other conditions or may not have been officially recorded as Covid because no test was carried out.
The numbers to 3 April were pretty horrifying as they showed a 60% increase in the number of deaths in the week compared to the 5 year average. Some of that may be natural variation but that can only account for a very small part of the number.
Up until 3 April there were 3605 deaths according to the official Covid-19 statistics. In the same week there were an excess deaths according to ONS of 6082 so the official Coronavirus numbers were only around 50% of the increase in deaths. The other half could be things like care home residents, deaths at home or deaths from other causes that may be linked to the emergency. There is some anecdotal evidence that patients with some serious conditions are avoiding treatment at hospital and may be dying as a result.
The ONS numbers due on 21st April will give the situation up to 10th April by which point there were 8958 deaths officially recorded to Covid-19.
If the ONS number for deaths in the week of 10/4/20 released on 21st April is 20,000 or more then it shows the increase in deaths from Coronavirus/Covid-19 is far more serious that the government has admitted and will equate to a possible death toll so far of over 30,000 people compared to the announced number of 16,000 victims.
Once the numbers are released I will revisit this blog post but you can view the ONS data yourself on their website.
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